8.18.2008

Who’s Being Polled?

Public Policy Polling, based in Raleigh, North Carolina, released a poll today saying that John McCain and Barack Obama are tied in Ohio. PPP says Obama is having trouble with middle aged white women who backed Hillary in the primaries. PPP rightly surmises that the old girls are still sulking.

According to PPP, Obama’s numbers among Democrats stands at 75%-17% backing him for president, while McCain has 89%-7% support of Republicans.

The polling group goes on to state in its release that Obama would be better off campaigning with Hillary when he comes to the Buckeye state. Maybe...maybe not. In my own personal polling, which amounts to me talking to friends and neighbors and acquaintances...Hillary’s name being put into nomination at the upcoming convention is the height stupidity. Folks are really ticked off at the Clintons and the arrogance of their supporters. But back to the poll....

I was willing to let this poll pass unnoticed until I looked at the numbers. One of the hidden figures inside this poll says that Obama is ahead of McCain in women and voters under 45...but is only 80%-18% supported by Blacks in Ohio. McCain leads Obama among whites 49%-38%.

Honestly, that does not look like a tie to me...even if the black vote is correct...which I don’t for a minute believe that it is....

Here in Ohio, which is Disneyland for the GOP, McCain can’t carry 18% of the black vote in a galvanized bucket with a padded handle. Ain’t gonna happen. . Things have changed since the days of Ken Blackwell...he lost the last election, remember? McCain may take Ohio...he has to, to win...but he’s not gonna take the black vote...not in anyone’s universe.

So, who did PPP interview to come up with these numbers.....950 folks who chose to pick up their telephones.....

I’m sorry.....I don’t like polls and don’t trust them because they never represent a true cross section of people. No poll has been right this year because of these small sectors. Yet the MSM continues to quote them...to swear by them....and then try to dissect them when they turn out wrong...

Until pollsters make a real effort to reach out to all people, they’ll just keep getting wronger and wronger ( I know it’s not a word...but it fits.)
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